Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s highest temperature on 20 July 2026 is the real-world event this market resolves, with the current crowd-implied probability for any outcome above 34°C sitting at 0% YES despite the frontrunner being 38°C at 100% probability on Polymarket[1]. This apparent contradiction stems from the market’s structure as a multi-outcome conditional token set on Polygon, where USDC liquidity concentrates on the single most likely range while the binary “YES” slice (likely defined as exceeding a threshold) remains unpriced due to insufficient directional bets.

Historically, July in Chengdu sees average highs of 31°C with 50% daily rain probability and 75% relative humidity, often described as bochornoso or oppressive[3]. Peak temperatures in past years have reached 37–38°C during dry spells, but consistent cloud cover and rainfall in mid-July typically cap extremes, making a 38°C record plausible yet not guaranteed—hence the 0% binary price reflecting trader caution rather than climatic impossibility.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground history for ZUUU (Chengdu Shuangliu) as the official resolution source, watching for forecast updates from China’s meteorological bureau on heatwave advisories ahead of the 20 July settlement[1]. The school holiday period in July and August brings crowds and potential urban heat amplification, but the key catalyst is whether the rainy season breaks early, allowing sustained solar heating; no recent news announcements have shifted expectations, so on-chain volume and USDC depth will signal emerging consensus before the 2026-07-20T12:00:00Z deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.