Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s heat on 23 July is trading at **0% YES** on Polymarket, which means the contract is currently implying no meaningful chance that the day’s top reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will land in the market’s YES range. On Polymarket, that price is set in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the move from here will reflect what traders think the airport station will actually record by the settlement cutoff, not a broader citywide impression of the weather.

For context, Chengdu’s late-July climate is usually warm and humid, with daily highs often sitting in the upper twenties to low thirties Celsius rather than extreme heat. That makes the key question less about whether it will be hot in an absolute sense and more about whether the airport’s official maximum pushes into the exact band the contract resolves against. A 0% price usually signals either a thin book or a market that sees the specified temperature range as highly unlikely, so the practical comparison for traders is against recent Chengdu summer peaks and any previous days of sustained heat around the airport station.

The main catalysts are short-term forecast shifts, cloud cover, rainfall timing, and any heat advisory that changes expectations for the afternoon maximum. Because the market resolves to the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on Wunderground, traders should watch how local forecasts evolve for the airport itself rather than relying on general Chengdu summaries. With settlement tied to a specific station and a single-day high, even a modest change in expected sunshine, convection, or storm timing can matter more than broad seasonal averages.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.