Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Chengdu temperature contract at **0% YES** right now, which on-chain means the crowd is assigning almost no chance that the day’s recorded high at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport falls into the YES range before settlement in USDC on Polygon. The market resolves from the highest temperature logged for the full day on Wunderground, so the key variable is not a forecast at one point in time but the final airport observation for 24 July. Chengdu’s summer climate is typically hot, humid and rain-prone, with July averages around 30°C for daytime highs and substantial rainfall, which can suppress extreme heat even when the broader season is warm.[3][5]

That 0% print is most naturally read against the city’s usual July pattern rather than as a call on a record-breaking event. Comparable summer cases in Chengdu often cluster in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, with humidity and frequent showers keeping realised highs close to forecast highs rather than far above them.[1][2][3] For a prediction-market user, the practical question is whether the airport station gets a brief clear-sky heating spell or whether cloud and rain cap the reading below the next threshold band; that is usually what decides whether a contract like this settles inside the current market-implied range.

The main catalysts to watch are the day’s local weather evolution, especially rain timing and cloud cover, because the settlement source is the airport station’s *actual* daily maximum rather than a citywide average.[3][4] In practice, traders should monitor the forecast updates that mention chance of rain and humidity, as those are the factors most likely to limit the peak temperature through the afternoon.[2][4] Seasonal travel patterns and school-holiday traffic are background context for demand, but they do not affect resolution; only the Wunderground reading for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport matters here.[3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.