Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will record its highest daily temperature on 25 July 2026 at Shuangliu International Airport Station, measured in Celsius and resolved via Wunderground historical data. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either extreme uncertainty amongst traders or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the available brackets. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on that date, meaning the full day's high must be captured before resolution.

Chengdu's July climate presents a consistent baseline for comparison. The city averages maximum temperatures between 28–32°C during mid-to-late July, with extremes occasionally reaching 35–37°C during heat waves. Historical records show that temperatures above 40°C are rare but not unprecedented in the Sichuan basin during summer peaks. The 0% pricing across all ranges reflects the market's current inability to distinguish between likely and unlikely outcomes rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China's meteorological forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat wave activity across central and eastern provinces. Atmospheric pressure systems and monsoon patterns during late July typically influence whether Chengdu experiences typical summer conditions or anomalous heat. Real-time weather data from Wunderground itself becomes the decisive source once the settlement date arrives, making the accuracy of that platform's station reporting the critical dependency for final resolution.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.