Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying the chance of Chengdu’s airport-station high landing in the specified temperature band is being treated as negligible on current order flow. On Polymarket, that price reflects USDC-backed positions on Polygon, with conditional tokens settling against the Wunderground daily high for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station on 27 July 2026.

For context, Chengdu in July is typically warm, humid and rain-prone rather than extreme-heat dominated. TravelChinaGuide puts July around **30°C highs** with **80% humidity** and heavy rainfall, while ChinaDiscovery warns that July sits in the city’s rainy season, where traders should expect weather forecasts to matter more than the calendar average[3][4]. BBC Weather’s current Chengdu reading is **24°C** with moderate humidity, which is consistent with a city where cloud cover and showers can cap daytime highs[1].

The main catalysts are the local forecast path and whether precipitation or cloud cover suppresses the afternoon peak at the airport station before Wunderground’s settlement cut-off. A trader would usually watch the 24-hour forecast updates, any rain-band shifts over Sichuan, and the timing of the warmest part of the day against the settlement window; the market resolves on the recorded maximum, not on perceived “feels like” heat. Since the contract is tied to a single station, small differences in airport conditions can matter more than citywide averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.