Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract near **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying a high reading above the relevant range is currently viewed as very unlikely on the Chengdu Shuangliu Airport station’s 31 July maximum. In practice, holders of conditional tokens on Polygon are pricing the outcome against the day’s actual station reading, with USDC as the settlement currency if the final Wunderground figure lands in the selected temperature band.

The historical frame is mixed but not extreme: July in Chengdu is typically warm, humid, and rain-affected, with published July norms around the low 30s Celsius and regular rainfall suppressing some afternoons, while some forecasts still show spikes into the mid-30s on hot days.[3][13][15][19] That matters for reading a zero-price contract, because a low implied probability can persist even when the base climate is hot if traders think cloud cover, convection, or rain timing will cap the day’s maximum near the airport station rather than allowing an outlier reading.[6][8][12]

For traders, the key catalyst is the intraday weather evolution at and around Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport: morning cloud and rain bands, afternoon clearing, or a late convective burst can materially change the day’s high before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, which is 20:00 local time. The live forecast mix is already split between readings in the high 20s and low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with some sources showing 33–37°C peaks and others keeping the high closer to 28–31°C, so the path of precipitation and cloud cover is the main dependency to watch.[2][3][8][10][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.