Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this Chongqing airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying there is no consensus that the day’s high at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station will land in the YES range. On Polymarket, traders are buying and selling **USDC-settled conditional tokens** on Polygon, so the price reflects the market’s view of the likelihood that Wunderground’s logged maximum temperature for 4 August will end up inside the chosen band, not a broader citywide impression of how hot Chongqing feels.

The historical backdrop points towards a very warm outcome being routine rather than exceptional. August is Chongqing’s hottest month, with average daytime highs around **34°C** and frequent days above **40°C** in city weather summaries, while airport-specific August forecasts also cluster in the high 20s to high 30s Celsius depending on the source. Wunderground’s own historical daily page for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport is therefore the key benchmark, because a market tied to a single station can settle very differently from general city forecasts if the airport sits under cloud, rain, or a slightly cooler local air mass.[1][5][14]

For a trader, the main catalysts are the same-day forecast updates, any overnight or morning rain bands, and whether regional convection suppresses the afternoon peak before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Forecast products for Chongqing on 4 August have already shown a range from around the mid-30s Celsius to the low-40s Celsius in different services, with rain risk repeatedly flagged, so the relevant dependency is not just heat but whether showers or cloud cap the maximum. In practice, the strongest watch item is the airport station’s live progression on Wunderground, because the market resolves on that recorded high rather than on city forecasts or feels-like temperatures.[3][7][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.