Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s July 2nd heat is the real-world event underpinning this contract, with the city historically seeing daytime highs between 32°C and 37°C, rarely exceeding 39°C in early July. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific temperature range suggests traders believe the outcome is either impossible or already settled outside the offered brackets. Historically, early July in Chongqing is hot but less brutal than late July, which often reaches 38–40°C; the city’s all-time record of 43.2°C occurred outside typical early-month patterns, making extreme outliers unlikely for this date [1][6][7].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily feed for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, as settlement depends entirely on this source’s highest recorded temperature for all times on 2 July 2026. Recent climate data confirms China experienced its hottest July on record since 1961, with average temperatures surging across the southwest, potentially elevating baseline heat for this year’s event [4]. While daily peaks in Chongqing have rarely exceeded 39°C in July historically, the 2025 heatwave that forced residents to seek shelter indicates rising volatility that could push temperatures toward the upper end of the typical range [6]. On Polymarket, this contract resolves via conditional tokens on the Polygon network, with USDC payouts triggered automatically once Wunderground publishes the verified daily maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.