Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas on 12 July 2026 is forecast to see daily highs between 96°F and 102°F at Love Field, with overnight lows of 77°F to 83°F, making a sub-90°F peak effectively impossible under current models [1]. The crowd-implied 0% YES probability for the market’s lowest range aligns with this thermal baseline, as July in Dallas routinely delivers extreme heat rather than cool anomalies. Historical data shows the average warmest July day reaches 96.1°F, while the record high for the month is 106°F, confirming that temperatures below 90°F are outliers in this season [7].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground’s KDAL station page as the settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 12 July, since resolution depends solely on the highest recorded temperature for that day [1]. No announcements or policy shifts affect this outcome; the only catalyst is the actual weather observation, which AccuWeather and the National Weather Service currently project to stay well above 95°F [1][5]. Conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, will reflect the final temperature range once Wunderground publishes the official daily maximum, with no manual intervention required.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.