Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, Dallas Love Field Station will record a daily high temperature, and this market resolves to whichever range bracket contains that figure in Fahrenheit. The current Polymarket pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature bands, a technical artefact of how conditional tokens settle when no traders have yet committed capital to any outcome. Once positions open, USDC liquidity on Polygon will establish a genuine price curve across the available ranges—likely clustering around historical norms for mid-July in Dallas, where daily highs typically fall between 92°F and 98°F.

Dallas's July climate is remarkably consistent year-on-year. Over the past two decades, the 13th specifically has seen highs ranging from 89°F to 101°F, with the median around 95°F. Extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 100°F—occur roughly once every three to four years during this period, whilst readings below 90°F are rare but not unprecedented during cooler summers. This historical distribution should anchor trader expectations; the market's eventual price discovery will reflect whether 2026 develops into an anomalously hot or mild summer relative to recent precedent.

The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead, though July 2026 predictions remain unavailable until mid-2026. Traders monitoring this contract should track spring and early-summer temperature patterns across Texas, as persistent heat domes or unusual atmospheric blocking can shift July outcomes significantly. Wunderground's historical data for Dallas Love Field provides the sole settlement source, making that archive the definitive reference point once the date passes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.