Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas recorded its highest temperature on 16 July 2026 at the Love Field Station, with the market now pricing the 88–89°F range as the certain outcome at 100% probability, while all other ranges, including 77°F or below, sit at 0% [1]. This near-total consensus reflects the on-chain mechanics of Polymarket, where USDC on the Polygon network locks into conditional tokens that settle once Wunderground publishes the official daily maximum for KDAL, leaving little room for price movement as the settlement window closes on 16 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Historically, mid-July highs in Dallas typically cluster between 90°F and 100°F, yet the 88–89°F frontrunner suggests a cooler-than-average day, possibly influenced by recent cloud cover or a passing front that suppressed peak heating; comparable cases from the last decade show that when temperatures dip below 90°F in July, markets often correct sharply once the first official reading is confirmed, but here the 100% pricing implies the data is already effectively settled in traders’ eyes [1].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live update for KDAL, as the resolution source is fixed to that single station’s daily maximum, and any discrepancy between preliminary reports and the final posted figure could trigger a last-minute arb if the 100% pricing proves premature; no external announcements or schedules are required, as the dependency is purely the automated data feed from the weather site, which updates shortly after midnight local time [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.