Highest temperature in Dallas on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas’s heat on 22 July is now being priced on Polymarket as a near-certain **108–109°F** result, with the contract’s other temperature bands effectively at zero on the exchange. Because the market settles through USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, the live price is the practical guide for holders: if the highest temperature at Dallas Love Field lands in that range on Wunderground’s daily history page, the relevant token resolves to payout, and if it lands elsewhere, it does not.

The current 100% reading looks extreme, but it is consistent with how summer heat in North Texas can compress expectations when a hot spell is already established. In that kind of setup, traders are usually not modelling a single day in isolation; they are following a broader pattern of persistent high pressure, dry ground, and warm overnight lows that can support a very high afternoon peak. The useful comparison is not a normal July day, but other late-July heat episodes where the forecast range has already moved into the upper 100s and the market has effectively treated lower bands as dead.

For a trader, the main catalysts are the forecast updates that affect the Love Field station specifically: National Weather Service outlooks, local temperature watches or advisories, and any shift in cloud cover, rain chances, or storm timing that could trim the afternoon high. The relevant dependency is the station reading itself, not the citywide average, so even a short-lived shower elsewhere in Dallas matters less than the conditions at KDAL. In practice, Polymarket users watch the weather service forecast cycle and the Wunderground daily maximum closely, because that is the source that will decide which conditional token pays out.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.