Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Guangzhou airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, which means the market currently sees virtually no chance of a qualifying outcome within the listed range. The event itself is straightforward: the settlement will track the **highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station** on 1 August 2026, with the result taken from Wunderground’s daily history page and resolved against the contract’s Celsius bands. On Polymarket, traders are holding USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the market price reflects where liquidity sits rather than any guarantee about the weather outcome.

The 0% print is best read against Guangzhou’s late-summer climate, which is typically very hot and humid. Historical August averages cluster around the low 30s Celsius, with daily highs often near 33°C and some years reaching the mid-to-high 30s. That means the relevant question is not whether Guangzhou is warm, but whether the airport station posts an extreme enough high to land inside the market’s target band before the settlement cut-off. By late summer, even small shifts in cloud cover, rain timing, and afternoon convection can move the day’s maximum meaningfully.

For traders, the main catalysts are the local forecast updates for Guangzhou, the timing of any rain bands, and whether the day turns into a humid but cloud-limited hot spell or a storm-interrupted one. The Wunderground reading at the airport matters more than citywide averages, so comparisons with downtown forecasts can mislead. The market is also sensitive to the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC, because late-morning and midday heating still counts if the airport reaches its peak before that point.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.