Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% implied probability, reflecting minimal trader conviction that Guangzhou will record a temperature exceeding the specified threshold on 14 August 2026. The market settles on the highest temperature reading from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, measured in Celsius. This distinction between the raw observations feed and the summary high-low display matters for resolution; traders must account for potential discrepancies between the two data sources when evaluating their positions in USDC on Polygon.

August represents peak summer in Guangzhou, when daily highs routinely exceed 33°C and occasionally breach 35°C. Historical records show that extreme heat events—temperatures above 37°C—occur sporadically during August but remain uncommon enough that the 0% pricing reflects genuine scarcity rather than market dysfunction. The 2013 heatwave pushed Guangzhou to 38.9°C, whilst more recent Augusts have typically peaked between 34–36°C. Traders should examine the specific threshold embedded in this market's resolution criteria, as even marginal differences in temperature bands shift the probability materially.

The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 14 August 2026, creating a hard deadline for Weather Underground data publication. Guangzhou's monsoon season and occasional tropical systems can suppress peak temperatures, though August typically remains dry and hot. Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the weeks preceding the event, as these often precede Weather Underground updates and provide early signals about atmospheric conditions likely to drive extreme heat.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.