Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Guangzhou airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively assigning no probability to the station’s recorded high on 4 August reaching the relevant outcome band. Because settlement is based on the **highest temperature at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station** on the day, not the citywide average, the key input is the actual Wunderground history page for that station, with USDC held on Polygon and the event expressed through conditional tokens.

For context, August in Guangzhou is normally the city’s hottest, stickiest period, with typical highs around the low 30s Celsius and frequent rain or thunderstorms. Forecast services currently cluster around highs in the **30–33°C** range for early August, while airport-specific weather reporting shows Guangzhou/Baiyun already around **30°C** with high humidity and light winds, which is consistent with a muggy summer pattern rather than an extreme heat spike. That historical baseline matters because these contracts usually only pay if the final airport reading lands in the exact band, so a low price can reflect both ordinary warmth and the narrowness of the settlement range.

A trader watching this should focus on the day’s airport observations and anything that can shift the ceiling on temperature: afternoon convective showers, thunderstorm timing, cloud cover, and wind direction, all of which can cap the high even when the air feels oppressive. The relevant dependency is straightforward: if Baiyun Airport briefly prints a hotter value than nearby city forecasts suggest, the market resolves off that number, so late-morning and early-afternoon conditions are the practical catalyst rather than the broader Guangzhou outlook.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.