Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Guangzhou airport temperature contract at **0% YES** in USDC on Polygon, which means the market is treating a highest reading in the relevant settlement band as effectively absent for now. For that to pay out, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station on 5 August 2026 must land inside the specified Celsius range on Wunderground’s daily history page, so traders are really underwriting the station observation rather than Guangzhou’s citywide weather.

That zero bid is at odds with the city’s usual August profile. Independent forecasts and climate guides put Guangzhou’s early-August highs around the low 30s Celsius, with some model output showing 5 August near 32°C and forecasts for the month clustering around 28°C to 34°C. Historical August references also show Guangzhou is normally hot, humid and rain-prone, with daily highs often around 33°C to 35°C, so a 0% market implies either an unusually low settlement bracket or a view that the observed airport high will sit outside the relevant band despite the heat. [1][2][3][13][16]

For traders, the main catalysts are the same ones that move airport weather prints on the day: the strength and timing of afternoon convection, cloud cover, rain bands and any tropical disturbance affecting southern China. Guangzhou’s August weather is typically driven by the subtropical monsoon, so a wet morning can still leave room for a hot afternoon if breaks in cloud appear, while sustained rain or storm coverage can cap the day’s maximum. On Polymarket, that matters because the contract settles from the reported station high, not from an average forecast, and the conditional token position only resolves once the Wunderground history entry is final. [2][13][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.