Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this Polymarket contract, which currently prices the YES option at 0% on the Polygon network using USDC. This near-zero valuation suggests the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, despite Guangzhou’s July climate typically delivering highs around 33°C (91°F) with daily peaks rarely dropping below 29°C (84°F)[1][5]. Historical data offers a stark contrast: on exactly 1 July 2004, the station recorded 39.1°C, the highest temperature ever observed in Guangzhou, proving that extreme heat on this date is physically possible[3]. Yet, recent years show a trend of record-breaking summer heat across China, with July 2023 marking the hottest month since comprehensive data began in 1961, and July 2024 again setting a new national high average[2][6].

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts for the Pearl River Delta, particularly any announcements regarding heatwave warnings or monsoon activity that could suppress temperatures before settlement. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s finalised daily record for the Baiyun station, which updates at 12:00 UTC on 1 July, creating a clear dependency on real-time sensor data rather than model projections[4]. While July is consistently one of Guangzhou’s hottest months, with temperatures occasionally reaching 36°C (96.8°F) amid cloudy, rainy conditions, the absence of a confirmed heatwave in early July 2026 may justify the current 0% pricing[7]. Conditional token liquidity on Polymarket remains thin for this contract, reflecting uncertainty about whether the specific range will be hit, even as regional heat records continue to climb.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.