Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s highest temperature on 20 July 2026 at Baiyun International Airport will determine this market’s outcome, with the crowd currently pricing a YES result at 0%. On Polymarket, traders are using USDC on Polygon to buy and sell conditional tokens tied to specific temperature ranges, locking in exposure until the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 July 2026. The zero probability suggests the market believes the event triggering a YES payout is virtually impossible under current conditions.

Historically, late July in Guangzhou sees peak summer heat, with Baiyun Airport regularly recording highs between 33°C and 36°C. In 2023, the station hit 36.2°C on 20 July, while 2024 saw 35.1°C on the same date. These comparable cases indicate that temperatures in the 30–35°C range are typical, making extreme outliers unlikely. The 0% implied probability may reflect a specific threshold in the market’s resolution ranges that exceeds historical maxima, rather than a belief that no heat will occur.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as the day progresses. Any sudden shifts in humidity, cloud cover, or wind patterns could alter the peak temperature. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled for 20 July, the China Meteorological Administration typically issues daily forecasts for the region, which may influence short-term trading sentiment. With settlement imminent, liquidity and price volatility will likely increase as the clock ticks toward 12:00 UTC.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.