Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou's peak temperature on 21 July 2026 will be measured at Baiyun International Airport Station and recorded in Celsius. The market currently prices at 0% YES, meaning traders are assigning negligible probability to whichever temperature range this contract represents—likely an extreme upper bound. On Polygon, this conditional token trades against USDC pairs, settling to 1.0 if the highest recorded temperature falls within the specified range, or 0.0 otherwise. Resolution depends on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station and date.

July represents peak summer in Guangzhou, with the city regularly experiencing temperatures between 32–35°C during this month. Historical records from Baiyun station show that temperatures exceeding 37°C occur occasionally but remain uncommon; the station has recorded highs above 39°C only in exceptional heatwave years. If this market's YES range sits above 38°C or higher, the 0% pricing reflects the statistical rarity of such extremes rather than impossibility. Comparable July peaks from 2015–2023 provide the baseline: most years cluster around 33–36°C, with outlier years reaching 37–38°C.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather patterns from June onwards, as early-summer atmospheric conditions influence July's trajectory. The China Meteorological Administration issues monthly forecasts that occasionally flag heatwave risk; any official alert for Guangzhou in June 2026 would signal elevated probability for extreme July temperatures. Additionally, the El Niño or La Niña phase active during mid-2026 will influence regional heat patterns, though such forecasts remain uncertain beyond six months.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.