Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 25 July 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station determining the settlement range. The market currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% probability on Polymarket, indicating either a technical listing issue or extreme uncertainty about which specific range will resolve. Traders settling positions will need USDC on Polygon to interact with the conditional tokens, with resolution tied directly to Wunderground's historical weather data for that single day.

Guangzhou's July temperatures have historically clustered between 32–37°C, with occasional peaks above 38°C during intense heat waves. The 2023 summer saw multiple days exceeding 36°C in late July, whilst 2022 recorded a 40.3°C maximum on 13 July—the highest in two decades. These precedents suggest the market should price mid-to-high ranges as substantially more probable than extreme outliers, yet the current 0% across all brackets suggests the contract may not have attracted sufficient liquidity or initial pricing from experienced weather traders.

Monitoring China's meteorological forecasts from late June onwards will be essential, particularly announcements from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat wave patterns across Guangdong Province. La Niña or El Niño conditions heading into northern hemisphere summer can shift regional temperature expectations materially. Additionally, any unusual atmospheric blocking patterns or tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early July could suppress temperatures, though such events typically occur earlier in the monsoon season. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 July, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once actual conditions become visible.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.