Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract priced at **0% YES**, so the market is currently assigning no weight to Guangzhou Baiyun Airport posting a hottest reading that falls inside the relevant range on 31 July. For a user holding USDC on Polygon, that means the conditional token market is effectively saying the observed daily maximum is expected to miss the target band, even though the settlement source is a single station-level Wunderground high rather than a citywide average.

The framing is hot July climatology versus the exact band chosen for resolution. Guangzhou’s July normals are broadly in the low 30s Celsius, with average highs around 30–33°C and frequent humidity and thunderstorms, but forecasts for late July still show peaks near 34–37°C and a meaningful rain chance[1][3][7][17][19]. That matters because the market settles on the station’s *highest recorded temperature* for the day, not the afternoon forecast headline, so a brief spike, cloud cover, or storm timing can move the result across a boundary even if the day otherwise looks typical for midsummer.

Traders should watch the updated hourly and minute-by-minute forecast path, especially the timing of convection around Baiyun Airport, because late-morning heating and afternoon thunderstorms are the main ways Guangzhou diverges from a flat daily high. Wunderground’s airport history page is the resolution source, so the only number that ultimately counts is the maximum printed there after the day closes; if the airport sees a very warm, dry window before showers arrive, the settlement range can shift despite an otherwise rainy setup[8][12].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.