Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine the outcome of this prediction market. Historical data shows that daytime highs in Guangzhou during July typically range from 32°C to 37°C, with extremes occasionally surpassing 38°C [1][2]. The all-time record for the city is 39.1°C, set on 1 July 2004, indicating that temperatures in this range are not merely theoretical but have occurred under similar seasonal conditions [8]. Given that July is one of the hottest and sunniest months in Guangzhou, with average highs around 33°C and frequent peaks above 35°C, a 0% probability for any temperature outcome appears inconsistent with the region’s climatic reality [1][4].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as well as any typhoon forecasts or thunderstorm warnings that could suppress temperatures on the settlement day [1]. Recent reports highlight that July in Guangzhou is influenced by typhoon arrivals, which often bring heavy thunderstorms and temporary cooling, though such events are not guaranteed [1]. Additionally, the on-chain mechanics of Polymarket—using USDC on Polygon with conditional tokens—mean that price movements will reflect immediate shifts in weather data rather than abstract speculation. As of today, the market price remains at 0% YES, but this may shift rapidly if Wunderground begins reporting temperatures within the expected 32–37°C band, especially given the city’s consistent summer heat patterns [2][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.