Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting traders are either awaiting settlement data or treating the market as inactive pending the actual date. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that day, though the Observatory typically publishes its daily climate extract within 24 hours of observation, creating a brief window where conditional token holders await official confirmation before resolution.

Hong Kong's August temperatures historically cluster between 32–35°C, with absolute daily maxima rarely exceeding 36°C. The territory's hottest August day on record reached 36.6°C in 1990, whilst the past decade has seen several days above 35°C during mid-August heat waves. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than any expectation of anomalous conditions; traders typically enter such weather markets closer to the settlement date when meteorological forecasts become more reliable and the event's outcome approaches certainty.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's extended forecast updates, typically issued five to seven days ahead. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August could suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over southern China would drive readings toward the upper range. The Observatory's daily climate data, published via their online portal, serves as the sole authoritative source; any delays in publication would defer resolution accordingly.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.