Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on 10 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s official “Absolute Daily Max” serving as the sole resolution source. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specified range, despite numerical consensus runs indicating a likely high of 33–34°C for that date[1].

Historical data shows July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with an average high of 89°F (31.7°C) and recorded peaks reaching 35.7°C in past years[2][6]. The 2025 climate report noted Hong Kong’s sixth-hottest year, with all months warmer than usual and the annual mean temperature 0.8°C above the 1991 baseline[7]. These trends suggest a 33–34°C outcome is plausible, framing the current 0% probability as potentially misaligned with recent climatic patterns.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract publication schedule, as the market cannot resolve until the “Daily Extract” for 10 July is finalized[5]. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather predict daily highs between 86°F and 93°F (30–34°C) for July 2026, reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures near the upper range[3]. Conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, will execute automatically once the official data is published, making timing of the extract release the critical catalyst for settlement[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.