Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 is the real-world event this contract tracks, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Absolute Daily Max” in degrees Celsius serving as the definitive resolution source. On Polymarket, the USDC-denominated market on Polygon currently prices the “YES” outcome at 0%, reflecting near-zero crowd confidence that the temperature will fall into the specific range implied by the binary question, while the frontrunner outcome of 29°C holds 39% probability and 30°C follows at 28% [1].

Historically, mid-July in Hong Kong typically sees peak temperatures between 29°C and 33°C, with 29°C being a common daily maximum in recent years under cloudy or rain-affected conditions. The current 0% pricing for the binary “YES” outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the narrow range tied to that resolution, consistent with past July 16 readings that often exceed 30°C unless significant monsoon activity intervenes.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily weather bulletins and the Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal schedule, as an approaching monsoon trough or tropical cyclone could suppress temperatures below 29°C. The Observatory’s “Daily Extract” for 16 July 2026, published after 12:00 UTC, will confirm the final value; any pre-12:00 UTC forecast updates from the Observatory or the China Meteorological Administration could act as immediate catalysts for conditional token price swings on Polygon.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.