Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this Hong Kong heat contract at **0% YES** today, so the on-chain market on Polygon is effectively saying the odds of a qualifying daily maximum are being assigned no value at the moment, even though settlement will depend only on the Hong Kong Observatory’s final **Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)** for 31 July 2026. For a user holding the conditional tokens and USDC exposure, the key point is that the market resolves from the Observatory’s official daily extract, not from broader citywide weather commentary or station-specific anecdotes.[13][15]

The historical frame is that July in Hong Kong is already a hot month, and the Observatory’s own records show extreme outcomes are possible: July’s highest monthly maximum temperature has reached 35.7°C, with 35.6°C and 35.4°C also on the July record list.[3] In a recent example, the Observatory logged 36.1°C in July 2023, which was described as one of the highest monthly absolute maximum temperatures on record for that month.[7] That makes a 0% market reading notable only in trading terms; it does not imply the underlying temperature cannot print a high number once the day’s maximum is finalised.[3][7]

Traders should watch the Observatory’s same-day hourly readings, any weather warnings or heat-related updates, and the timing of the final daily extract publication, because this market cannot resolve until the data for the date has been posted.[8][13] At 2 p.m. local time today, the Observatory reported 31°C at its headquarters, with several other stations already at 31°C or above and some New Territories locations higher, including Cheung Chau at 33°C and Kowloon City at 32°C.[8] Recent reporting has also shown that Hong Kong can move quickly from warm daytime conditions to a markedly hotter final daily maximum, so the settlement-relevant number is the Observatory’s official end-of-day figure, not the midday read.[5][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.