Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Houston airport high in this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively assuming the day’s peak at William P. Hobby Airport will not land in whatever temperature range the “YES” outcome represents. For a trader, the live position is settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the relevant question is not whether Houston is hot in general, but whether the official Wunderground daily high at KHOU on 3 August 2026 clears the chosen band before the market’s noon UTC settlement window closes.

The historical read-through is straightforward: early August in Houston usually sits in the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit, with long-range and monthly climate references clustering around average highs near 88–89°F, while recent daily forecasts have repeatedly pointed to mid-90s or higher. Wunderground’s own hour-by-hour outlook for 3 August showed a high of **96°F** at one point, and local forecasts from Houston broadcasters and newspapers have described highs flirting with **100°F** through the first half of the week, with only isolated storm chances and no major cooling system dominating the pattern.[3][14][15][18]

What matters from here is whether late-day cloud cover, an isolated shower, or a brief frontal boundary trims the airport maximum enough to alter the final reading. Current forecasts cited in local coverage still point to sunny, hot conditions with only scattered afternoon or evening storms and limited rain chances, which means the key dependency is not a broad weather break but the exact timing of any convection relative to the hottest part of the day.[6][7][12] In practice, a Polymarket trader watching this market should focus on the Wunderground station page for KHOU rather than citywide temperatures, because settlement is tied to the airport observation, not downtown Houston or a headline forecast.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Houston on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.