Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston will hit its peak heat for 15 July 2026 at the William P. Hobby Airport station, with the market resolving to the Fahrenheit range containing that day’s highest reading. On Polymarket, this contract trades in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, and today the crowd prices the “YES” outcome at 0%, effectively dismissing any chance of the event occurring as defined. Instead, the frontrunner is the 84–85°F range at 43%, followed by 82–83°F at 24%, showing traders expect a hot but not extreme day.

Historically, mid-July highs in Houston cluster between 88°F and 95°F at Hobby Airport, with 84–85°F representing a notably cool outlier for the season. The current 0% probability on the “YES” side likely reflects a mismatch between the market’s binary framing and the actual temperature distribution; if the market’s “YES” condition implies a specific threshold below typical July highs, the data supports that dismissal. Comparable cases from 2023–2025 show only rare dips below 86°F during this period, reinforcing why traders lean toward the 84–85°F band as the most plausible resolution.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live hourly feed for KHOU, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rain that could suppress temperatures. The forecast for today describes hot, humid conditions with mixed sun and clouds, which aligns with the 84–85°F frontrunner but leaves room for a dip if precipitation develops [2]. Since settlement ends at 2026-07-15T12:00:00Z, the final reading will be locked in shortly after midnight UTC, making real-time updates critical for position management before the market closes.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Houston on July 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.