Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s temperature will be set by the highest reading at William P. Hobby Airport before the settlement window closes, and Polymarket is pricing that conditional-token contract in USDC on Polygon at **0% YES** right now. That implies the market is effectively assigning no probability to a result in the settled temperature range at present, even though the eventual outcome will be determined by the daily high published for KHOU on Wunderground.

For context, Houston in midsummer often delivers highs in the mid-90s °F, with humidity keeping conditions oppressive and limiting the usefulness of any one-day analogue. A recent Houston past-weather record from a nearby local conditions archive showed a **95°F** high with fog, light winds and very high humidity, which is consistent with the sort of hot, moisture-heavy setup that can hold temperatures in a narrow band rather than producing extremes. That history matters for reading the market because a 0% print can reflect thin early liquidity as much as a strong view on the weather itself.

Traders should watch the near-term forecast discussion, any thunderstorm chances, and whether cloud cover or morning rain suppresses daytime heating at Hobby Airport. In practical Polymarket terms, the contract settles from the airport’s reported high, so the key dependency is the station-specific reading rather than downtown Houston conditions. Any late shift in the temperature forecast, or a change in the expected timing of showers and outflow boundaries, can move the conditional-token price quickly once participants begin to re-anchor around the Wunderground resolution source.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Houston on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.