Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak temperature recorded at Istanbul Airport on 9 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance for any outcome above the lowest threshold. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, where the frontrunner is 25°C at 41% probability, followed by 24°C at 36%. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall below the defined range, likely due to the specific resolution criteria or an anticipated cool day.

Historical data frames this probability against long-term averages, where Istanbul’s July daytime maximum typically reaches 27°C with low humidity, and the first ten days of the month average 27.2°C. While Turkey experiences intense heat in July with average temperatures rising to 18–31°C, Istanbul remains slightly cooler than inland regions, and July is the driest month with only 17mm of rainfall. The current 41% probability for 25°C aligns with these averages, indicating that traders are betting on a day slightly below the typical peak, consistent with the 0% chance for higher thresholds.

Traders should monitor the NOAA weather station at LTFM for real-time updates, as the market resolves only after the first data point for 9 July is published. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather show daily highs ranging from 80° to 91°F (27–33°C), but forecast uncertainty across a wide degree range keeps the market volatile. A key catalyst is the "Switch to Metric Units" button on the NOAA site, which must be toggled to view temperatures in °C for accurate resolution. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind patterns could alter the peak temperature, making the 25°C outcome a critical pivot point for conditional token holders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.