Highest temperature in London on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the London City Airport Station will record its highest temperature in degrees Celsius, a real-world event that determines the outcome of this prediction market. Today, Polymarket prices the contract with a 0% implied probability for the YES side, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will not reach the threshold required for a positive resolution. This pricing reflects the on-chain mechanics where USDC settles trades on the Polygon network, using conditional tokens to lock in positions based on weather outcomes.

Historically, July is London’s hottest month, with London City Airport averaging a high of 72°F (22°C) [1]. However, extreme heatwaves have occurred, such as in July 2022 when parts of the UK recorded 40°C for the first time [7], and a brief but intense heatwave in July 2025 that affected all areas of the British Isles [10]. These cases frame how traders should interpret the current 0% probability: while average highs are moderate, the potential for outliers remains significant, especially with current forecasts showing 86°F (30°C) for 10 July [3].

Traders should monitor the Met Office 7-day forecast for London City Airport, which includes temperature, rain, wind, and UV warnings [2], as well as real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source [6]. Recent news from AccuWeather indicates sweltering heat and partly sunny conditions for 9–11 July, with temperatures peaking at 86°F (30°C) on 10 July [3]. Any sudden shifts in wind direction, humidity, or cloud cover could alter the day’s peak temperature, making these dependencies critical for assessing the market’s risk.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.