Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this Los Angeles airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, with the market heavily concentrated in the **76–77°F** band at 93% and a smaller share in **78–79°F** at 7%. On Polymarket, traders are still using USDC on Polygon to express a view on the conditional token tied to the highest reading at Los Angeles International Airport, not the citywide forecast in general.

That pricing sits alongside a fairly ordinary late-July Los Angeles pattern rather than an extreme heat setup. AccuWeather shows Los Angeles at 83°F with mostly sunny conditions, but the relevant settlement point is the single highest temperature recorded at KLAX on 22 July, which is usually tempered by the airport’s coastal influence.[2] Recent local coverage also pointed to a Southern California heat advisory beginning on 22 July and running through the week, which helps explain why the book has some tail risk above the mid-70s, even if the crowd still sees the lower 70s/upper 70s as the most likely landing zone.[3]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s observed highs near the airport, the timing of marine layer burn-off, and any renewed heat advisories that shift expectations during the daytime session. NBC Los Angeles noted the region was dealing with its first heat wave and advised residents to expect higher energy demand during the afternoon, a useful reminder that inland warmth does not always translate cleanly to the LAX station reading.[4] Because the market resolves against Wunderground’s daily history page for KLAX, the trade is less about headline weather and more about whether the airport tops out in a narrow band before the settlement window closes.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.