Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event concerns the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting the market believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, despite July typically being the hottest month in Los Angeles with average highs near 85°F[1][10].

Historical data frames this probability against recent comparable cases, including a heatwave in early July 2026 that shattered records across Southern California and triggered a heat advisory for parts of Los Angeles County on 7 July[4]. While Robinhood markets show conditional tokens for ranges above 72°F, and Lines.com indicates a 43% probability for the 76–77°F bracket, the current 0% pricing appears to contradict the seasonal trend where daily highs regularly reach 79–90°F[1][2][5]. This divergence may stem from on-chain mechanics on Polygon where USDC liquidity is temporarily skewed by conditional token arbitrage rather than meteorological fundamentals.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s Climatological Report for 9 July, which serves as the primary resolution dependency alongside Wunderground data[3]. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather predict daily highs between 79°F and 90°F for July 2026, with overnight lows of 64–71°F, providing a clear baseline for evaluating the 0% pricing anomaly[1]. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 9 July 2026, meaning any delay in data release from the National Weather Service could impact the final payout timing, as seen in previous markets where expiration occurred shortly after data publication[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.