Highest temperature in Lucknow on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Lucknow’s July heat is a defining real-world factor, with the city recently recording its hottest day of the season at 43.4°C, four degrees above normal, according to Scroll.in [5]. This contract on Polymarket prices the 33°C range at 0% YES today, implying the market expects temperatures far higher than that threshold on 7 July 2026 at Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport [2]. On-chain, USDC trades conditional tokens on Polygon, where liquidity reflects this stark divergence from historical July averages.

Historically, Lucknow’s July peaks often exceed 33°C; in July 2025, temperatures hovered around 75°F (23.9°C) but the city’s all-time seasonal record hit 47.8°C in June 2025 [1][7]. The 0% price suggests traders view 33°C as implausibly low given recent extremes, including the 43.4°C reading just days prior [5]. Comparable cases show July maxima frequently surpassing 35°C, framing the current probability as a bet against a mild outlier.

Traders should monitor the India Meteorological Department’s daily forecasts for Amausi and Wunderground’s hourly updates, which serve as the official resolution source [4][6]. Key catalysts include monsoon onset announcements and heatwave advisories, which could suppress temperatures below 33°C. Recent news from Scroll.in confirms active heat monitoring, with officials tracking anomalies that may shift on-chain odds before the 2026-07-07 settlement window closes [5]. USDC liquidity will react to these dependencies as conditional tokens adjust to new data.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.