Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Madrid temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is treating a qualifying heat reading at Madrid-Barajas before the settlement cut-off as extremely unlikely. The position settles in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the relevant question for holders is not whether Madrid feels hot, but whether the **highest official temperature at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station** lands in the resolution band used by the market.

The historical frame is straightforward: late July in Madrid is usually hot enough to keep the distribution elevated, but the exact outcome still depends on the day’s peak at the airport rather than the city average. AccuWeather’s July climatology for Madrid shows highs around the mid-30s Celsius on recent late-July days, while broader July climate data puts typical daily maxima near **33–34°C**, with extreme heat occasionally pushing much higher.[1][7] Madrid’s all-time heat records underline the upper tail: the capital has reached **40.7°C** on several summer dates, including July, and Spain has seen even higher regional extremes in recent years.[11][15]

The main catalysts are the live forecast trend, the timing of peak afternoon heating, and any shift in cloud cover, wind or Saharan dust that can blunt or amplify the day’s maximum. A trader should watch the official Madrid airport observation page or Wunderground’s daily history page through the afternoon, because the market resolves off the **highest recorded temperature** on the day, not a daily average.[12] A recent Spanish report said Madrid was forecast for **38°C** with **0% precipitation**, which is materially warmer than the monthly norm and keeps the upper tail relevant for a same-day settlement window.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.