Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the settlement source drawn from Wunderground’s daily history. Today, Polymarket prices the contract at 0% for any outcome other than 34°C, which holds a 100% frontrunner position, reflecting the market’s near-certainty in that specific range[1]. This pricing ignores the abstract event and instead locks onto the on-chain mechanics: USDC stakes on Polygon, conditional tokens resolving at 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z, and the binary nature of the 34°C threshold.

Historically, July in Manila falls within the wet season, with average highs between 26°C and 31°C, though temperatures can spike higher during brief dry spells[2]. The wet season typically brings heavy rainfall in July and August, cooling daytime peaks, yet recent data shows Port Area in Manila hit 36.0°C on 1 July 2026, the country’s highest that day[6]. This outlier suggests that while 34°C is statistically plausible, the 0% probability for other outcomes may be overly rigid given the volatility of tropical maritime climates, where daytime averages range 26–33°C year-round[3].

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s special weather outlooks for scattered thunderstorms in Bicol and partly cloudy conditions in Metro Manila, which could suppress temperatures below 34°C[9]. Additionally, the timing of rainfall events and cloud cover on 1 July will be critical, as spontaneous rain showers can occur even in drier periods[3]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s recorded maximum, so any discrepancy between real-time forecasts and the official data could shift the market’s implied probability away from the current 100% certainty in 34°C[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.