Highest temperature in Miami on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 August 2026, Miami International Airport will record its highest temperature for that date, measured against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The Polymarket contract currently prices this event at 0% probability across all temperature bands, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal trading activity establishing a floor. Settlement hinges on the precise reading from the designated weather station, with USDC collateral locked on Polygon until the resolution window closes at midday UTC on the settlement date.

Miami's August climate presents narrow historical variance. Daily highs in mid-August typically cluster between 89–92°F, with the city's all-time August record standing at 98°F. The 30-year average high for 13 August sits around 90°F, making extreme outliers—either unusually cool days below 85°F or heat-dome scenarios exceeding 95°F—statistically uncommon. Traders should reference NOAA's Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlooks and any Atlantic hurricane activity that might suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, both of which have historically shifted Miami's August highs by 3–5°F.

The National Weather Service Miami office publishes extended forecasts approximately 10 days before the settlement date, providing the first concrete catalyst for repricing. Tropical systems developing in the Atlantic during early August 2026 could materially alter atmospheric conditions; conversely, a high-pressure ridge establishing over the Southeast would drive temperatures toward the upper end of the historical range. Traders monitoring sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf Stream and tracking any named storms will have the clearest signal of how the conditional token prices should adjust from their current floor.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.