Highest temperature in Miami on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Miami airport high-temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which effectively means the market sees no live bid for any temperature bracket containing the day’s maximum. The contract pays out via conditional tokens on Polygon and settles in USDC, so the only thing that matters is the final highest reading for Miami Intl Airport Station on 5 August 2026 as published by Weather Underground, not the broader city forecast or the feel-like temperature.

That near-zero price sits against a routine Miami August pattern: hot, humid afternoons with highs often around 89–90°F, and official-style forecasts for 5 August 2026 were already pointing to around 90°F in Miami, with AccuWeather showing 89°F for the date and CBS News Miami saying the high would climb to around 90 degrees.[1][2] Comparable temperature markets on prediction venues have recently clustered around the upper 80s and low 90s, suggesting traders usually anchor to the airport’s daily high rather than headline citywide heat commentary.[6][8]

For a trader, the key catalysts are the final Weather Underground daily table for KMIA and any late-day adjustment before the first datapoint for 6 August is posted, because that is the point at which prior readings are locked for resolution.[8][9] On the weather side, the main dependencies are whether afternoon showers or thunderstorm outflow trim the maximum, versus another sustained hot and partly sunny session that pushes the airport into the 90s; forecasts issued into the day were already flagging hot, humid conditions and scattered thunderstorms in South Florida.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.