Highest temperature in Milan on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at a **0% YES** chance, so the market is effectively treating any specific Celsius bucket above zero as unpriced on USDC collateral settled through Polygon conditional tokens. The event itself is straightforward: the outcome depends on the **highest temperature recorded at Milan Malpensa Airport** on 2 August, using Wunderground’s daily history page as the resolution source, with all trading settled once the observation window closes.

The current 0% reading sits well below what Milan’s August climatology would normally suggest. Long-run guides place Milan’s typical August daytime maximum around **28–31°C**, with hot, humid afternoons common and occasional thunderstorms, while the city’s north-Italian inland position can still produce sharp heat spikes in late summer.[2][7][16][17] Polymarket’s own market page was showing **34°C** and **35°C** as the leading outcomes earlier in the day, which is consistent with a market expecting a warm peak rather than a cool one.[3]

For traders, the main catalyst is the live weather path into the settlement window: any forecast update on cloud cover, precipitation, or the arrival of a cooler Atlantic disturbance can move the upper temperature bands quickly. The contract resolves on a single station reading, so the key dependency is not the city average but the Malpensa airport maximum on Wunderground’s history record, which may differ from central Milan by a degree or more depending on local conditions.[3] With the market already open and the deadline effectively past, any late-hour price action would mostly reflect whether the final observed maximum lands in the hotter bins or slips below them.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.