Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this Munich airport temperature contract at **1% YES**, implying the market currently expects the day’s peak to land outside the target range or to stay unexceptional by late-summer standards. Because settlement is tied to the **highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport Station** on 1 August, traders are really betting on a single intraday maximum, not the whole day’s average, and the position settles through Polymarket’s usual **USDC on Polygon** conditional-token mechanism once Wunderground publishes the historical daily high for the station.

The 1% reading looks low against Munich’s August climatology, where typical highs sit in the mid-20s Celsius and average August highs are around 24–25°C, with occasional spikes well above that range. Historical Munich data show August records reaching **38°C**, while local monthly summaries put August highs near **30°C** on a historical-average basis, which helps explain why the contract is not priced as a near-impossible tail event even though today’s quote is still very subdued.[3][5][9]

For a trader, the main catalysts are the actual daytime heat profile over southern Germany, cloud cover, and thunderstorm timing, since late-day convection can cap the maximum after a warm start. Munich’s August temperatures typically ease through the month, but early August can still deliver the season’s stronger readings; in practice, the key watchpoint is whether airport observations break into the upper 20s or low 30s Celsius before the settlement cut-off, because that determines whether the conditional tokens resolve into the relevant temperature band.[2][13][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.