Highest temperature in Munich on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport's meteorological station will record the day's peak temperature on 17 August 2026, with settlement determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polymarket, reflecting the contract's recent listing status and the distance to the August settlement window. USDC collateral on Polygon underpins these conditional tokens, with the winning range determined solely by the highest reading captured at the airport station in Celsius.

Historical August temperatures at Munich Airport provide the essential baseline for calibrating expectations. Over the past two decades, mid-August highs have ranged between 24°C and 32°C, with the median sitting near 27–28°C. Notably, August 2022 saw temperatures exceed 30°C on multiple days across Bavaria, whilst cooler years like 2015 produced highs around 24–25°C during comparable periods. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects uncertainty about which specific range the market creator has defined rather than genuine doubt about whether Munich will record some measurable high temperature.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasting updates beginning in late July 2026, particularly from the German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst). Atmospheric pressure patterns over the Atlantic and any heat dome development across central Europe will drive the eventual outcome. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—not the Day High & Low summary—creates a technical dependency worth noting; discrepancies between the two sources have occasionally occurred, making the specified primary source critical for accurate resolution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.