Highest temperature in Munich on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the Munich Airport Station will record its daily high temperature, which determines the resolution of this prediction market. Today, Polymarket prices the "YES" outcome for a 28°C hit at 0%, reflecting the crowd’s conviction that such a peak is virtually impossible under current conditions. This contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens lock liquidity until the resolution source, Wunderground, publishes the first data point for the day.

Historically, July highs at Munich International Airport average 72°F to 75°F (22°C–24°C), rarely exceeding 87°F (31°C) [1][3]. While Germany recently recorded its hottest ever temperature of 41.3°C in June 2026, Munich’s summer climate remains temperate, with daily highs typically around 71°F (22°C) [5]. The 0% probability aligns with comparable cases where 28°C was not reached, as even the 2026 forecast for Munich shows highs ranging 69°F–90°F (20°C–32°C), but the average high sits at 77°F (25°C), making 28°C an outlier [2].

Traders should monitor the Met Office forecast for Munich, which predicts a maximum of 25°C today and 27°C on 10 July, suggesting no immediate heatwave catalyst [7]. The key dependency is the official Wunderground dataset for 9 July, which will resolve the market once published. No recent announcements indicate a sudden temperature spike, and the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 9 July 2026, leaving little time for late-stage volatility [10]. The 0% price remains stable as no credible weather models project a 28°C peak for this date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.