Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will determine this market's settlement. The contract currently trades at 0% implied probability across all temperature bands on Polygon, suggesting the crowd assigns negligible likelihood to any single range materialising—an unusual positioning that reflects either extreme uncertainty or a technical artefact in how the market has been structured. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that matters when automated feeds occasionally diverge from official station records.

New York's August temperatures historically cluster between 78–88°F at LaGuardia, with extreme readings above 95°F occurring roughly once per decade during heat waves. The 2019 heat dome pushed the airport to 92°F; the 1988 heatwave reached 99°F. Current pricing at zero across all bands suggests traders are either waiting for clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder until the National Weather Service issues its August outlook in mid-July 2026. The settlement window closes at midday on the event date, which compresses the trading window relative to markets that remain open through evening observations.

Traders should monitor the Atlantic hurricane season's trajectory and any developing tropical systems that could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. The Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlook, typically released around 20 July, will signal whether La Niña or El Niño conditions favour above or below-normal heat. Historical volatility in August pricing often emerges in late July once medium-range forecasts stabilise, potentially shifting the current flat probability distribution.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.