Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several discrete ranges, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than the summary high-low figures. The current market pricing reflects zero probability assigned to the YES outcome, suggesting traders are either heavily concentrated on alternative temperature bands or the contract parameters carry structural constraints that make this particular range unlikely given historical August patterns in New York City.

New York's August temperatures at LaGuardia typically range from 75°F to 88°F, with extreme highs occasionally reaching into the low 90s during heat waves. Historical data from the past two decades shows that temperatures exceeding 95°F occur roughly once every three to four years during August, whilst readings below 75°F are comparatively rare. The 0% crowd probability indicates either this market is pricing an exceptionally narrow temperature band or traders have already concentrated liquidity on competing outcomes, which is common on Polymarket when conditional token mechanics create natural clustering around round numbers or meteorologically significant thresholds.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the National Weather Service's extended forecast for mid-August 2026, particularly any heat dome development or Atlantic tropical systems that could influence the Northeast. The settlement mechanism's explicit reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—not the Day High & Low summary—creates a technical dependency worth verifying; discrepancies between the two sources have historically favoured the granular observation data. USDC liquidity on Polygon will likely remain thin until late July, when seasonal forecasts solidify and traders can better calibrate their positions against competing temperature bands.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.