Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current market pricing reflects zero probability across all temperature bins, a technical artefact of how Polymarket's conditional token architecture initialises contracts before meaningful trading volume accumulates. USDC settlement on Polygon will execute once the National Weather Service data from that specific date becomes final and reconcilable against the resolution source.

August temperatures at LaGuardia historically cluster between 78°F and 88°F, with the airport's all-time August high of 102°F set in 1975 remaining an extreme outlier. The past decade shows most mid-August days reaching 80–86°F, though the 2021 heat dome pushed readings to 95°F on 11 August. These historical patterns suggest the market will likely resolve to mid-range bins once trading commences, as extreme heat events require specific atmospheric conditions—persistent high-pressure systems or tropical moisture—that forecasters cannot reliably predict two years in advance.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal climate forecasts from NOAA released in early 2026, which typically indicate whether summer will trend warmer or cooler than normal. The specific week of 15 August will become predictable only within 10–14 days beforehand, when numerical weather models gain sufficient skill. Until then, the contract's pricing will reflect base-rate climatology rather than actionable forecast information, making early positions largely speculative bets on whether August 2026 deviates from the 50-year average.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.