Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this New York temperature contract as a distribution of bands paid in USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens redeemable for $1 if the correct outcome settles on the LaGuardia Airport high.[5] The live market is not giving one band a commanding edge: the front outcomes are clustered around the low-to-mid 80s, while the crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES points to an expectation that the event will not land in the market’s specific “YES” bucket at settlement.[5]

For context, LaGuardia has already produced a sharp summer upside surprise this season: on 2 July 2026, the airport reached 104°F, well above normal and above the old daily record, while Central Park also hit 100°F.[18] That matters because traders on this contract are not forecasting “hot” in the abstract; they are mapping a single station reading into a tight outcome ladder. In practice, a forecast in the low 80s leaves room for a modest afternoon peak, but a late-day push, cloud cover, or marine influence can shift the final bucket by a degree or two.

The main catalysts are the same ones that move any intraday weather market: updated short-range forecasts, cloud and humidity changes, and whether convective activity or a sea breeze caps the afternoon high. Polymarket’s resolution depends on the Wunderground history page for LaGuardia Airport Station, so traders need to watch the station-specific maximum rather than city-wide headlines.[2] Recent coverage of the region’s extreme heat underscores how quickly temperatures can overshoot forecasts, but the relevant question here is where the day ultimately closes on the Wunderground record, not whether New York felt uncomfortable earlier in the afternoon.[8][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.