Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this LaGuardia high-temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying the current price for every listed temperature band is negligible. On Polymarket, buyers hold USDC on Polygon and trade conditional tokens that pay out $1 if the recorded high on 3 August 2026 lands in the chosen range, with settlement tied to the Wunderground LaGuardia history page. The key practical point is that the market resolves to the **highest observed airport temperature**, not a citywide average, so a single late-afternoon spike can decide the payout.

Recent pricing has been much tighter when forecast highs sit in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, and that is usually where these summer New York markets cluster. Polymarket’s own listing has shown the leading bands around **82–83°F** and **84–85°F** near the top of the book, while the underlying Wunderground-linked event can still be sensitive to small shifts in cloud cover, sea breeze and timing of peak heating. Comparable New York August histories often settle in the low 80s rather than near-record heat, which makes the mid-80s outcomes structurally live without requiring an extreme weather setup.[1][5]

For traders, the main catalysts are the final local forecast updates, any shift in convective coverage, and whether showers or storm outflows arrive early enough to cap the afternoon maximum. CBS New York reported a storm threat with flash-flooding potential in the area on 3 August 2026, which is relevant because cloud cover and rainfall can pull the realised high below model guidance if they arrive before the day's peak heating.[10] On Polymarket, the only number that matters is the LaGuardia reading that Wunderground records for the day, so even a broad NYC forecast matters only insofar as it changes that airport’s highest printed temperature.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.