Highest temperature in NYC on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this LaGuardia conditional-token contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is currently assigning no value to the event that the day’s high lands in the specified temperature band. On Polymarket, that price reflects USDC-denominated demand for the relevant outcome on Polygon, with the contract resolving off the Wunderground history page for LaGuardia Airport rather than a generic New York City forecast.[1][4][10]

The 0% reading sits against a normal early-August New York backdrop that often reaches the upper 80s, with AccuWeather showing an 88°F high for 6 August and Wunderground’s monthly history page for New York City available as the benchmark traders commonly cross-check against station-level data.[3][4] In that sense, the market is not about whether it gets warm in the city, but whether the specific LaGuardia reading finishes inside the band implied by the contract’s settlement rules; that distinction matters because airport observations can differ from Central Park and other borough-based forecasts.[1][4]

For traders, the main catalysts are the same data points that can shift the realised high before the settlement window closes: updated National Weather Service guidance, any heat advisory or storm timing changes, and the evolution of cloud cover or sea-breeze effects around the airport corridor. USA Today reported a heat advisory for New York City and the surrounding region through Friday, with actual temperatures expected to peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat index values above 100, which is the kind of late-breaking forecast context that can move a weather market even when the on-chain price is already pinned near zero.[9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.