Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% for YES** today, so the market is effectively assigning no weight to any LaGuardia reading landing in the specified range on 7 August. Because settlement is tied to the **highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table** for the LaGuardia Airport Station, rather than the summary “Day High & Low” figure, traders have to watch the station-by-station observation log and any late revisions through the market’s resolution window rather than rely on a single headline number.[4][8][3]

For context, late-summer New York highs can move quickly when a Bermuda High dominates the region, but showers and thunderstorms can still clip the peak by an hour or two. Recent market pricing on Polymarket had clustered around the **high-80s to low-90s Fahrenheit** for this date, with **90–91°F** and **88–89°F** carrying the largest shares, which shows that the zero price here is a sharp reset rather than a neutral forecast.[3] That matters because temperature markets often hinge on whether the day briefly touches a band, not whether the afternoon feels broadly hot.

A trader watching the on-chain contract should track the Weather Underground daily history page for LaGuardia, plus any new National Weather Service discussion or airport observations that could shift the apparent daily maximum before the first reading for the following date posts. Polymarket settles these contracts through **USDC on Polygon** via conditional tokens, so the practical question is whether the reported observation set ultimately prints into the target range before the source cutoff, not whether surrounding forecasts remain hot.[4][8][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.