Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the settlement window closing on 1 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC. On Polymarket today, the contract is priced such that the 92–93°F range holds a 90% probability, while the 94–95°F range sits at 9%, leaving the 0% YES crowd-implied probability for other outcomes effectively negligible [1]. This pricing reflects the collective on-chain view of traders using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens are bought and sold to express confidence in specific temperature bands.

Historically, LaGuardia’s July highs typically range between 81°F and 99°F, with an average high of 87°F, making the 92–93°F bracket a statistically plausible frontrunner [5]. The record high for the airport remains 107°F, set on 3 July 1966, but such extremes are rare and usually tied to specific heatwave events [9]. Recent climatological data for 1 July 2026 shows a maximum temperature of 93°F recorded at 12:00 PM, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcome [4]. This consistency between observed data and market pricing suggests the current probability is well-calibrated to historical patterns.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather announcements and heatwave forecasts, particularly those from the National Weather Service, which may signal shifts in temperature expectations [8]. Isolated thunderstorms were forecast for the morning and late afternoon on 1 July, which could temporarily suppress peak temperatures [3]. Additionally, any updates from Wunderground regarding real-time readings at LaGuardia will directly influence the final resolution, as this is the official settlement source [6]. With the market already heavily weighted toward 92–93°F, significant deviations would require an unexpected surge in heat intensity beyond current projections.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.